Cost increase in Dutch inland waterway transport in 2025, major uncertainty for 2026
After years of cost increases, it is expected that the costs of transport by inland waterway will stabilise in 2026. However, there are differences in cost developments by vessel type, size class and deployment pattern. Vessels that operate a relatively high number of sailing hours, for example because they are used for international transport and operate continuously, show lower cost growth than vessels deployed on the domestic market. This is related to the expected decline in fuel costs in 2026. This and more emerges from the cost reports for inland navigation that were recently updated by Panteia on behalf of Koninklijke Binnenvaart Nederland.
In 2025, the cost price of inland waterway transport increased
In 2025, transport costs for Dutch inland navigation operators increased. This rise was mainly the result of higher capital costs, repair and maintenance costs, labour costs and insurance costs. Capital costs increased due to higher interest costs, which are based on the average interest rate level of the past five years. Repair and maintenance costs rose as a result of increasing labour costs at shipyards, more expensive materials and strong demand for shipyard capacity. Personnel in inland navigation are scarce, and the combination of increased demand (more transport movements and newbuild projects) with a high level of exits (retirements) makes it difficult to find suitable workers. Insurance costs increased because the size of claims has grown. Fuel costs were the only cost category to show a downward trend in 2025: -1.4%. This dampened the overall cost increase, which ranged from +1.4% to +4.2%, depending on the vessel type, the geographical area in which the vessel operates and the operating method. Excluding fuel costs, a cost increase of +4.4% to +5.4% was observed. Vessels with relatively high sailing hours, such as large tankers and push barging operations, experienced the lowest cost increases. In the construction materials transport segment, costs rose by +2.9% to +4.2%.
Cost stabilisation in inland waterway transport expected for 2026
For 2026, costs for transport by inland waterway vessel are expected to stabilise, although this forecast remains highly uncertain in view of current geopolitical developments. Differences by vessel type, size class and deployment pattern persist. This is because the expected cost increases for capital, insurance, labour, and repair and maintenance are offset by the expected decline in fuel costs. Total cost development is expected to range from -1.5% to +2.3%. In the construction materials transport segment, costs are expected to increase, although the increase is limited: +0.4% to +2.2%.
Due to the expected decline in fuel prices (-5.9%), vessels operating in international markets are expected to experience a lower overall cost increase in 2026 than vessels active in the domestic market. For short-distance transport, labour costs are more decisive for the final transport price, whereas for longer distances the share of fuel costs in total costs increases. Due to the growing labour shortage, labour costs in inland navigation have been rising for years.
Various forms of contracts are used in inland navigation. Inland navigation operators who have chartered out their vessel and work with long-term transport contracts receive a surcharge on the agreed price depending on fuel price levels. For these operators, cost developments excluding fuel are relevant. For 2026, a cost increase of 3.0% to 4.3% is expected in this regard.
Reports
In cooperation with Koninklijke Binnenvaart Nederland, the reports (in Dutch) have been made available. The reports can be ordered via the Panteia webshop or by e-mail (w.mars@panteia.nl).
A general report is available containing calculations for various segments (inland motor cargo vessels, push towing operations, tanker vessels, container vessels, and coupled units). In addition, a detailed report is available on the sand and gravel shipping sector. This report describes the cost structure in absolute figures and the (expected) development for this sub-market.
