The future of modal shift policy in European freight transport
We are pleased to share the results of our recent study for the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA), carried out with Transport & Mobility Leuven (TML), examining whether EU modal shift policies remain fit for purpose in an era of zero-emission trucks.
For decades, European freight policy has aimed to move cargo away from road towards rail and inland waterways. Our analysis shows that, despite sustained targets and investment, this approach has delivered limited changes in actual freight flows. At the same time, rapid technological developments are reshaping the system. Zero-emission trucks, digitalisation, automation and AI are changing both cost structures and environmental performance across modes.
The study combines EU modal split data, detailed cost structure analysis across several Member States, and a review of external cost and infrastructure investments at European level. In addition to this quantitative work, we conducted interviews with leading academics, shippers’ representatives and sector experts to test assumptions against expert views on operational reality.
Our analysis shows that while rail remains structurally more sustainable, its competitiveness is often constrained by capacity bottlenecks, terminal density, cross-border coordination and reliability issues. At the same time, the gradual electrification of road freight significantly reduces climate and air pollution externalities and is expected to alter relative cost dynamics, particularly as battery technology matures and energy systems decarbonise. The key takeaway of this work is that modal shift should not be treated as an objective in itself. Instead, policy should focus on fair pricing of external costs across all modes, targeted and well-designed investments, and enabling market-driven choices that support both efficiency and sustainability.
At Panteia, we are proud to have contributed to this work, bringing our expertise in freight economics, cost analysis and policy evaluation to a truly collaborative effort with TML.
The full report, The rationale for modal shift policy in the era of zero-emission trucks, is available here.
