Cost Increases in Inland Waterway Freight Transport Continue, Extremes Now Behind Us
The cost of Dutch inland waterway freight transport is expected to rise further in 2025, although the period of extreme increases is now truly behind us. This applies to all vessel types, size categories, and usage patterns. Vessels that operate a relatively high number of sailing hours – such as those active in international transport and sailing continuously – will see a smaller cost increase than vessels operating in the domestic market. This is mainly due to the expected decrease in fuel costs in 2025. These findings come from the updated cost reports for inland navigation, recently conducted by Panteia on behalf of Koninklijke Binnenvaart Nederland (Royal Dutch Inland Navigation).
In 2024, inland waterway transport companies also experienced rising transport costs. This increase was primarily due to higher capital costs, insurance premiums, labour costs, and repair and maintenance expenses. Capital costs increased due to higher interest rates, based on the average interest level over the past five years. Insurance costs rose as a result of larger claims. Labour within the inland navigation sector is scarce, and the combination of increasing demand (more transport and new-build projects) and a high number of retirements makes it difficult to find suitable personnel. Repair and maintenance costs increased due to rising wage costs at shipyards, more expensive materials, and strong demand for shipyard capacity. Fuel costs were the only cost category to show a decline in 2024, with a decrease of -3.7%. This helped temper the overall cost increase, which ranged from +0.3% to +3.7%, depending on the type of vessel, the geographical area in which it operates, and its operational pattern. Excluding fuel costs, the increase was between +4.3% and +6.0%. Vessels with high sailing hours – such as large tankers and container ships operating on the Rhine – experienced the smallest cost increase. In the construction materials segment, costs rose by +1.9% to +3.6%.
Similar Cost Increases Expected in 2025 Across All Vessel Types
For 2025, a further rise in the cost of inland waterway transport is anticipated. This is linked to expected increases in nearly all cost categories, with the exception of fuel costs. The total cost increase is projected to range from +1.2% to +3.8%. For construction materials transport, this increase is expected to be between +2.5% and +3.7%.
Again, vessels operating in international markets are expected to face a smaller cost increase than those in the domestic market, due to the anticipated decline in fuel prices (-1.8%). For short-distance transport, labour costs are a more significant determinant of final transport prices, whereas for longer distances, fuel costs make up a larger share of total expenses. Labour costs have been rising for years in inland navigation due to a growing personnel shortage. In addition to labour costs, capital costs, repair and maintenance expenses, and insurance premiums are also increasing.
Various contract types are used in inland navigation. Operators who lease out their vessels and work under long-term transport contracts often receive price surcharges based on fuel price fluctuations. For these operators, cost developments excluding fuel are more relevant. For 2025, a larger increase in these costs is expected: between 3.9% and 5.1%.
Reports
The reports (in Dutch) have been made available in collaboration with Royal Dutch Inland Navigation. They can be ordered through the Panteia webshop or by email (w.mars@panteia.nl).
A general report is available, which includes calculations for various segments (motor cargo vessels, push barges, tankers, container vessels, coupled units). Additionally, a detailed report is available on the sand and gravel transport segment. This report describes the cost structure in absolute terms and the (expected) developments for this niche market.
